Exit polling and racial bloc voting: Combining individual-level and R×\timesC ecological data

Despite its shortcomings, cross-level or ecological inference remains a necessary part of some areas of quantitative inference, including in United States voting rights litigation. Ecological inference suffers from a lack of identification that, most agree, is best addressed by incorporating individual-level data into the model. In this paper we test the limits of such an incorporation by attempting it in the context of drawing inferences about racial voting patterns using a combination of an exit poll and precinct-level ecological data; accurate information about racial voting patterns is needed to assess triggers in voting rights laws that can determine the composition of United States legislative bodies. Specifically, we extend and study a hybrid model that addresses two-way tables of arbitrary dimension. We apply the hybrid model to an exit poll we administered in the City of Boston in 2008. Using the resulting data as well as simulation, we compare the performance of a pure ecological estimator, pure survey estimators using various sampling schemes and our hybrid. We conclude that the hybrid estimator offers substantial benefits by enabling substantive inferences about voting patterns not practicably available without its use.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS353 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Quantitative Empirics of Redistricting Litigation: Knowledge, Threats to Knowledge, and the Need for Less Districting

The Civil Rights Movement had a variety of transformative effects on the way federal courts hear and decide cases; among them was the introduction of quantitative analysis as a staple of certain types of high-profile adjudication, particularly in redistricting cases. The first judicial foray into regulating the drawing of electoral districts-the one person, one vote line of cases-was premised on an equality norm expressed in explicitly numerical terms. In these cases, the Supreme Court settled on numerical guidelines requiring only simple arithmetic to implement. Since then, however, the federal judiciary has engaged with increasingly complicated quantitative measurements and statistical techniques, first in the racial vote dilution cases, then in the overuse of race cases, then in the partisan gerrymandering cases

Re-Solidifying Racial Bloc Voting: Empirics and Legal Doctrine in the Melting Pot

Racial bloc voting is the central concept in judicial regulation of redistricting. For the past several decades, the definition and proof of this concept have depended on two premises: that polities can be conceptualized in biracial terms and that nearly perfect information on voting patterns can be inexpensively obtained from simple statistical methods. In fact, however, neither premise has been true for some time, as the nation has become multiracial and allegations have increased that Caucasians vote less monolithically than before, with both assertions imposing severe stress on the simple statistical methods previously used to assess voting patterns. In this article, I analyze these challenges to traditional understandings and attempt to answer the following question: how can we litigate racial bloc voting well in the current era? I provide recommendations, including greater reliance on more sophisticated statistical methods, an increase in the use of sample surveys, and a renewed receptivity to nonquantitative evidence on voting patterns, while clarifying that each of these recommendations carries substantial costs. I then discuss the conceptual and normative implications of my recommendations on the empirics

The Evolution of Unbundling in Litigation Matters: Three Case Studies and a Literature Review

Perhaps the most famous “bundle ” in United States law is the meta-phor used to conceptualize property rights. Law students learn that one way to understand property is as a bundle of rights: the right to possess, the right to exclude, the right to sell, the right to destroy, the right to de-vise, etc. 1 One reason to conceptualize anything in terms of a bundle is to consider what happens if someone or something—the state, a third par-ty—unties the binding or pulls out one of the sticks. In property, this thought exercise helps students understand many of the doctrines taught in the canonical first year course, including easements, adverse posses-sion, and the rule against perpetuities. Forrest “Woody ” Mosten, whom some called the “Father of Un-bundling ” in the practice of law,2 no doubt had all this in mind when, in the 1990s, he began traveling the nation with a bundle of popsicle sticks tied together with a ribbon. To each stick, Mosten attached a label that represented some aspect of legal practice, such as researching the law or negotiating with opposing parties. 3 During his presentation, Mosten would untie the ribbon and wave around the now-separated popsicle sticks to emphasize his point that unbundling in the practice of law was possible and desirable. 4 Mosten’s road show comprised part of a trend towards the recognition, legitimization, and promotion of limited legal assistance 5 in litigation matters. The trend began in California 6 and since has spread to almost every state in the nation, 7 with most of the actio

Using Random Assignment to Measure Court Accessibility for Low-Income Divorce Seekers

We conducted a field experiment in which 311 low-income individuals seeking a divorce were randomly assigned to receive access to a pro bono lawyer (versus minimal help) to assist with filing for divorce. Examining court records, we found that assignment to an attorney made a large difference in whether participants filed for and obtained a divorce. Three years after randomization, 46% of the treated group had terminated their marriages in the proper legal venue, compared to 9% of the control group. Among “compliers”—participants who obtained representation only if assigned to receive it—those with lawyers were far more likely to file for and obtain a divorce than those not assigned lawyers. Because divorce implicates fundamental constitutional interests and can be effectuated only by resort to the courts, the US Constitution requires that dissolution of marriage be made achievable regardless of ability to pay. Yet, we observed few low-income individuals who were able to initiate divorce suits on their own. Through interviews and archival research, we identified barriers that low-income litigants faced in navigating the divorce system, including mandatory wait times, limited hours at important facilities, and burdensome paperwork sometimes requiring access to photocopiers and typewriters. This study therefore documents a salient instance in which a civil legal process was inaccessible to those without lawyers, even though their legal issues were straightforward, involving few if any matters for courts to adjudicate

Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for mantle cell lymphoma

AbstractThis study evaluated the outcomes of patients who underwent high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) and autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (autoHSCT) for mantle cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and the effect of clinical and treatment characteristics. The clinical outcome and prognostic factors in 40 patients who underwent HDC and autoHSCT for mantle cell lymphoma between June 1991 and August 1998 were analyzed. With a median follow-up of 24 months for the surviving patients (range, 4-68 months), the 2-year overall survival was 65% and the 2-year event-free survival (EFS) was 36%. In univariate analysis, characteristics predictive of a poor EFS were blastic morphology (P = .019) and the patient having received 3 or more prior chemotherapy regimens (P = .004). In a multivariate analysis, the only factor associated with a poor EFS was the number of prior chemotherapy regimens. Those patients who received 3 or more prior therapies had a 2-year EFS of 0%, and those who received <3 therapies had a 2-year EFS of 45% (P = .004). Patients with mantle cell lymphoma can obtain prolonged EFS with HDC and autoHSCT; however, this strategy for prolonged EFS appears to work optimally in patients who are less heavily pretreated. Whether this therapy will increase the overall survival or EFS in patients receiving transplants in first complete remission will need to be tested in prospective randomized clinical trials.Biol Blood Marrow Transplant 2000;6(6):640-5

Inhibition of Bromodomain Proteins in Treatment of Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma

Only ~50% of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the most common and aggressive subtype of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, enter long-term remission after standard chemotherapy, and patients who do not respond to treatment have few options. Therefore, there is a critical need for effective and targeted therapeutics for DLBCL. Recent studies highlight the incidence of increased c-MYC protein in DLBCL and the correlation between high levels of c-MYC and poor survival prognosis of DLBCL patients, suggesting that c-MYC is a compelling therapeutic target for DLBCL therapy. The small molecule JQ1 suppresses c-MYC expression through inhibition of the BET family of bromodomain proteins. We show that JQ1 efficiently inhibited cell proliferation of human DLBCL cells regardless of their molecular subtypes, suggesting a broad effect of JQ1 in DLBCL. After JQ1 treatment, initial G1 arrest in DLBCL cells was followed by either apoptosis or senescence. In DLBCL cells treated with JQ1, we found that c-MYC expression was suppressed in the context of the natural, chromosomally-translocated or an amplified gene locus. Furthermore, JQ1 treatment significantly suppressed growth of DLBCL cells engrafted subcutaneously and improved survival of mice engrafted with DLBCL cells intraperitoneally. These results demonstrate that inhibition of the BET family of bromodomain proteins, and consequently c-MYC, has the potential clinical utility in DLBCL treatment

GRB 071028B, a burst behind large amounts of dust in an unabsorbed galaxy

We report on the discovery and properties of the fading afterglow and underlying host galaxy of GRB 071028B, thereby facilitating a detailed comparison between these two. Observations were performed with the Gamma-ray Burst Optical and Near-infrared Detector at the 2.2 m telescope on the La Silla Paranal Observatory in Chile. We conducted five observations from 1.9 d to 227.2 d after the trigger and obtained deep images in the g'r'i'z' and JHKs bands. Based on accurate seven-channel photometry covering the optical to near-infrared wavelength range, we derive a photometric redshift of z = 0.94 +0.05 -0.10 for the unabsorbed host galaxy of GRB 071028B. In contrast, we show that the afterglow with an intrinsic extinction of AV(SB) = (0.70 +/- 0.11) mag is moderately absorbed and requires a relatively flat extinction curve. According to the reported Swift/BAT observations, the energetics yield an isotropic energy release of E(gamma,iso.,rest) = (1.4 +2.4 -0.7) x 10^51 erg.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in A&